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Whenever the wind flows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.

That is when enormous inflatables are dispatched across the border, with crates of cheap cigarettes swinging beneath.

Over the past 10 weeks, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's main airport into closure 15 times, affecting thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the national skies was closed completely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the officials are convinced they are confronting something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They state the balloons have been turned into tools of disruption in an manifestation of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian government has announced an emergency situation.

While balloons have been utilized by smugglers before, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Naturally it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus instrumentalises organised crime to influence bordering nations," a senior official stated.

The official argued the balloons are launched from locations that help them best aim at Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a belief that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the military and security field."

Border Vigilance

Now, every night, security forces head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are most frequent during the night.

Patrols establish temporary roadblocks on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and searching vehicles looking for anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any firm that can figure out how to intercept them.

Currently, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also act as a preventive measure.

Strategic Motives

The border itself is now defined by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and fortifications.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now views its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "baseless".

He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania rejects that explanation, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, provoking a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into easing sanctions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister interprets the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and tightened later when Belarus assisted Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister stated.

Public Discontent

Currently, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"We believe this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such covert tactics – undermining confidence – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even handle simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the fundamental challenges."