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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still