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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."