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The direst possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by researchers, encompassing a blistering 4C rise in temperatures to a 6.5-foot increase in sea level. Another scenario envisions a drop of 6C in temperature following the shutdown of crucial Atlantic Ocean currents, which would profoundly upset farming and power requirements.

Possible Extremes, Not Predictions

These impacts, a number of which are linked to climate tipping points, are seen as improbable but possible. The team said that these projections filled a gap in forecasting that had left the UK ill-prepared for worst-case results.

"The climate extremes we have outlined are not forecasts, but they are credible," stated Nigel Arnell who oversaw the research. "The nation has been formulating policy lacking the methods to assess catastrophic outcomes. We've now given decision-makers what they need to plan for future conditions they hope never happen, but must not overlook."

A Suite of Severe Conditions Projections

A second set of severe models sets out the potential extent of harsh climate between now and the end of the century. These show that thermometer readings could skyrocket in certain periods by up to 6C above average, while precipitation could be triple standard measurements.

The likelihood of the extreme scenarios coming to pass could not be calculated due to a lack of certainty about what action will be enacted to address global heating and how the Earth's systems will react. This analysis was described as similar to defence planning or resilience checks for financial systems.

Critical Outcome Highlights

• Severe Heating: Planetary heating soaring past 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts breaks down or if powerful amplifying effects including the tropical forests perishing unleash its enormous store of carbon. This would lead to intense and enduring heatwaves and dry spells hitting the UK in summer.
• AMOC Shutdown: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and losing stability due to ocean warming. A full shutdown beginning in 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Farming would struggle enormously and water supplies would be fundamentally reshaped," explained Arnell.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if ice sheets in the polar regions disintegrate quickly, submerging low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this threat is already understood by planners.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is rapidly cleaned up. This unexpected result occurs because aerosol particles from industrial activity reflect solar radiation from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

The severe models could be applied to guide the construction of long-term infrastructure, including expanded cities, power generation facilities and urban drainage systems. Knowledge about these climate risks could also speed the push to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

The study created the severe projections using a combination of past data and records, computer simulations and established principles. These outcomes omit international cascading effects like the global food shortages and resource wars.

The project was commissioned as part of a official climate resilience programme. Earlier reports have warned that too little consideration was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

Official experts has recommended that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and examine the risks for severe warming. Past policy documents have been described as being "very weak" by certain experts.

An official statement noted: "Climate change is at the core of the country's focus, both preparing for impacts and becoming a clean energy superpower. It is vital that the UK is prepared for the impacts."