Moving from Grudging Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power declares its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general planned to be fighting for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of soul-searching among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for the Caracas government just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“Putin and Trump are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” the analyst concluded.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly power-based world order – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“Team Trump is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”