Past this Pageantry of Putin's New Delhi Trip: The Indo-Russian Bond Which Has Weakened.

The rhetoric and optics from Russian leader Vladimir Putin's recent official trip to India spoke of a strong two-way partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi greeted Putin at the tarmac with a hug, and the leaders took a ride together, echoing a known diplomatic style. In his address, Modi referred to Putin as "a dear friend" and described the Indo-Russian bond as a "lodestar", built on "mutual respect and profound trust" that had "weathered the test of time". This was Putin's 10th visit to India during his quarter-century rule and his twentieth meeting with Modi after the latter assumed the premiership in 2014.

A Divide Between Pageantry and Reality

However, a clear disconnect persists between the ceremony and the substance of this partnership. Although Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, the country's companies are in fact buying less Russian oil in the face of international pressure. The two countries signed a series of agreements in areas like migration, health, food security, maritime cooperation, and educational exchanges. But, expected revelations on significant military deals failed to materialize. India has not concluded any major defence purchases with Russia since the 2022's offensive of Ukraine, a situation driven by delays in deliveries of equipment and spare parts as Moscow prioritizes its own defence requirements.

A Relationship Losing Strategic Influence

This all points to that the Indo-Russian dynamic no longer carries the identical strategic weight it once possessed. In the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed preferential barter arrangements and market access to the Soviet Union and its allies. This unique relationship reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, signed ahead of a war with Pakistan where Islamabad was backed by the US and China. Although both nations have sought to maintain a semblance of this special tie through a "unique and elevated" strategic partnership declared in 2010, the truth is that their interaction does not have the same significance as New Delhi has substantially deepened relations with the Western world.

Broadening and Underlying Tensions

New Delhi is unlikely to sever its crucial links with Moscow. Yet, as external pressure increases on India to reduce its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to diversify the relationship into other areas. On Putin's trip, they unveiled an joint economic programme extending until 2030, aiming to make their relations "broader, equitable and long-lasting". This involves improving entry for Indian goods to address a trade imbalance heavily skewed in Russia's favour. Cooperation between the two covers several strategically important fields – from aerospace and nuclear energy to defence and agriculture.

Ideological Bonds and Seen Dependability

At an sentimental plane, a significant amount of affinity with Russia remains, especially among older generations of officials in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial role during the Cold War. This has translated into a degree of understanding for the Russian narrative on the Ukraine war. Amid ongoing frictions between India and the US, in which American officials have made critical comments about the Indian economy, many in India view Russia as a increasingly reliable ally.

This challenge, naturally, is the continuing war in Ukraine.

The extensive declaration issued during Putin's visit made no mention to Ukraine, even though it ironically referred to the relationship as an "anchor of global peace and stability". In spite of Modi's much-touted statement that "this is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the war have been minimal.

Squaring the Circle: India's Global Balancing Act

This situation highlights the inherent complexities in India's foreign policy. The country is set to conclude a free trade agreement with the European Union, following a comparable pact with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada announced a trilateral technology initiative. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, although efforts are being made to boost people-to-people contacts between India and Russia.

How can India square this circle? New Delhi will be banking that ongoing peace negotiations will succeed, resulting in a cessation of fighting and the removal of a key thorn in its ties with the West. But, even if a peace deal is achieved, if it falls short of a "fair resolution" that upholds Ukraine's sovereignty and borders, scrutiny of the Indo-Russian relationship will undoubtedly continue in Western governments.