Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Selection Procedure

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.