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Within the considerable disarray surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He believes that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been shockingly muted. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.