War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it difficult to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".